Nobody can doubt the potential of the Indian market. Perhaps to give a feel, humongous is the right word. Big opportunity attracts larger crowds. First it encouraged many service providers (who opted from concentric diversification to lateral diversification), and now it is the turn of the handset manufacturers.

Again the same story and behaviour can be seen here. The opportunity is attracting any form of business to jump in. India’s domestic players are increasing sharply and they are pegging in to the battlefield to mark their footprints. First time mobile users are surely considering buying a “Made in India” mobile handset and others are able to experience several features at very competitive rates. Yet some are positioning for their super-jumbo power back-up; with some claiming 72 hours of battery back-up.

Voice service is something default that everybody expects from a mobile phone. Consumers now want to go beyond voice. They want to explore data services, browse Internet and remain as much as social. Mobile phones are helping them to “pocket the society.” So definitely, with data services becoming very affordable, everybody wants to empower the hand with as many features as possible. With at least, a years guarantee / warranty, one finds reliable value for money in buying these handsets.

These vendors fit in the middle of the handset manufacturer layer. On top we have the global players and at the base we have the grey market which comprises of China made handsets. This domestic handset market is spanning out in both ways and very soon we shall see this layer as the fattest of all. Mobile users from the top layer will switch to it for getting same features at lower costs and the people addicted to grey market get assurance by climbing up.

Market is already flooded with bundled services where an Indian made handset offers a sim as well. The next evolutionary step seems to be that the service providers will be launching their own handsets. They have two easy options to go by. Either acquire these upcoming handset manufacturers; remember, service providers are cash rich, or venture in to the handset manufacturing using Android like platform as OS. Android, by the way, recently hit 100,000 applications landmark in the Android Market.

With 3G services now expected to dominate the market, such handsets will remain in great demand and India has the potential and ability to fill up the supply side indigenously. No doubt, with the help of Chinese manufacturing.

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But as the broadband speeds are shooting up and the network is becoming more reliable world over, it is becoming possible to push high bandwidth consuming services like video with ease. With the existing broadband setup and now the super broadband networks being tried, video services over the public Internet is a reality with acceptable levels of QoS.

So which is the more yielding platform for the content providers and distributors? Is it still the TV? Well there seems to be paradigm shift. Some services over the public Internet have already become hot like Netflix and Comcast’s VoD over Internet. As per some industry figures, Netflix had 130 million views in January 2010. Similarly, Comcast’s On Demand service revenues were close to a billion dollars for 2009, and with the extension of service over the Internet, they are expecting a remarkable surge in it.

Seeing this growth and development in the market, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart also expressed its interest in the segment after acquisition of Vudu (online video streaming company).

Earlier trends in the industry also indicated that video is the next big happening over the Internet and now we are getting signs of On Demand video also getting its chunk. These signs clearly show that ISPs can scale their network not only in capacity but also in services and increase their ARPU coupled with reduction in fixed costs. Its a two way economy for ISPs.

Definitely trends like this is showing that ISPs are day-on-day becoming key influencers of the industry and what can really differentiate any communications service provider is to have the ability of offering and owning the IP network.

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But my TV is still not allowing me to do so. I still have to rely on text messages. Whenever I find anything interesting I have to text my friends and family requesting them to watch the particular programme.

With IPTV we can easily integrate this feature where I can share whatever I feel worth with my friends in real time. Not only the live TV but the on demand services as well. For instance, when I like a movie, I can share the same with whomsoever I want. Ofcourse, the provider must be same.

Similarly for live TV, I can suggest any programme to them after going through the EPG or if there is any breaking news, I can just broadcast the same. They can get the updates right on their TV, mobile, laptop; wherever they desire; thanks to end-user convergence.

Let me hope somebody soon allows me and my friends to share content on the TV.

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Does this mean that vendors while selling the solution, do not reveal ‘something’ to which only they are privy and when handed over the operations they are well equipped or the resources with the service provider are not properly trained. Somewhere, we have a gap that is creating market for managed services.

Look at the services from a different angle and how it is impacting the schema of telecom market. Vendors are becoming more powerful in the space. They first sell the solution and then charge their customers for their operations. Since they get the direct control of the operations, many other allied decisions are then in their hands. So they become the real powerful influencers in the decision making process. Of course, that is going to directly help them business wise.

Telecom service providers might be getting financial and operational benefits by letting a third party to manage their services, but look at the associated issues.

1. The dependence on the vendor is increasing. In fact, the service provider is itself inviting a vendor to take charge of everything. Diversification is the best ever thought strategy for minimizing the risk- risk of anything including dependence on any or a few business associates including the vendors.

2. The people running the operations are from the vendor (managed services provider). It can never happen that they will look into the interests of the company in the same manner as their own employees would; particularly when the two are in conflict. Their bondage with the company will always be loosely knit.

3. Whatever smart contracts we may sign off, the managed service provider can pack up and leave the company in an awkward position. For the managed service provider only has financial stake and to some extend reputation. On the other side, the telecom service provider has a large stake – customers, business, market, services, brand and what not.

4. Competitive advantage and differentiation is what everybody out there doing business it trying to do. By bringing a third party so close to business, we are losing all this. How come can they facilitate this when they can be having our competitor as the other customer? Agreed that we can have a contract clause that they won’t do direct business with them, but soon after finishing the contract with us they can go with very valuable information to our competitors to ‘manage’ them now.

5. Sometimes, the managed services can also become an impediment to the expansion plans of a service provider. For instance, the operator wants to go ahead with an expansion plan using a particular technology and the managed service provider is not well equipped to handle it. In such scenario, they will always oppose it or suggest some other way of achieving it that could not be beneficial to the service provider. To allure them, they could offer them heavy discounts and show them the ‘benefits’ like interoperability with the existing system, homogeneity with the network and all that, but it could not be the way in which the service provider would want to.

My arguments don’t propose that the telecom service provider by contracting its operations to a third party leaves to think. It is not that they do not take all their strategic decisions on their own. But the issue is they have got in an outsider who tells them that we are here for you. Gradually the dependence grows on this outsider and turns into a key influencer. They could be coming up with solutions based on ‘Win-Win’ principle, but they will always try to skew the principle more in their favour.

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I was thinking long time back, that why can’t we have a single page that is linked to all our pages we visit. Something sort of a diary, where we can have daily, weekly or monthly views that would have the links to websites that we need to visit on such frequencies. Now this is not technically that difficult and we can essentially have it in two ways. One we can convert our desktop to a webpage that can be designed the way we want. But that could, rather will definitely make our laptops very slow over the passage of time and if by any change we are offline, it will give that odd page over the desktop.

So why not to have it over a website itself. What if a service comes up where we register our account and request for a specific design as per our needs and have the web desktop available. With java and php programming it is actually possible to have one such web page as per our own desire. But yes we will have to bear with the ads that definitely such a service provider will be displaying.

We have i-google services available but that is not flexible enough. We can have very limited number of applications over our desktop. So let us see if someone else takes the initiative or may be KRG will like to venture this out soon. At least we will definitely have some people soon using it, I know that for sure.

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Though politicians across the ages are joining the social networks, but it is common among young and forward looking leaders. They are tweeting and posting every day; their views, interpretations, ideas and comments. The goodness is that people, not only can read them but also counter-comment them. This makes it interactive. So how a democracy should have been functioning, Internet is enabling it. This is clearly giving the voters, particularly the youth of India an idea to make a personality based selection of a leader and we could soon be seeing the end of polarization towards parties. Instead, people will be liking a particular person in the form of their representative. In case of routine matters, localised leadership is definitely needed, so we cannot expect a person from Delhi selecting a leader from Mumbai, but surely in case of expressing a desire to have a particular person as the Prime Minister or any other functionary.

Some might argue that it isn’t going to make any difference as the Internet penetration is still too low for it being considered as a mass media in India. But I argue, it is the beginning, a good beginning. It is also giving a platform to express to the population of India that has been shying away so far and are now somewhat ‘repenting’ of not taking the right steps at the right time. Had they been actively participating in elections and selections, Indian leadership would have a different kind of group of people at the helm of affairs.

This social network politics might be useful and limited only to some metros or large cities, but even if it makes a difference to around 100 odd MPs of the total strength, its a good beginning. In urban India, we are facing with complex issues and the major one is competition at work; not allowing people at large to spare some time to attend to politics, which is at the end of the day affecting them a lot. But with these social networks, they are at least able to track their leaders and interact with them.

So we must encourage leaders to tweet and interact with them. This will definitely help India grow as a democracy at the level that it should be.

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Whether it has happened or is just a false allegation, is yet to be ascertained. With both sides confident about it occurence and otherwise, it will take sometime to get things clear. But surely, in this instance, the investigating agency has been lucky to have been asked to track the telephone calls, which is very easy over POTS.

As the developments in communications advance, a person is networked through many ways and the accessibility to them has also improved. Though we had emails, chatting softwares, etc. earlier as well, but in recent years they are really at our finger tips. Mobile has made them highly approachable.

We can say, mobile Internet is happening; I mean the high speed mobile Internet and through your mobile you can use a VoIP client, a peer to peer client, social networking service or just an easy email. Tracking all these media, is not and would not be easy for any intelligence agency. Definitely not on this part of the earth. Merely being able to tap the fixed or mobile phone for voice calls won’t serve the purpose and with services being encrypted the tracking is going to be tougher. Even if something is achieved, it is going to take a lot of time, marring the investigation.

So what can be done? Should we stop all these services? Are we going to block them if we are not going to track them properly, particularly for national interests? We do mainly attribute security to national interests, but bunglings of high order like that in IPL is definitely a national interest. So, why should not the government be allowed to resort to all means in tracking the activities that could lead to something. We all need to think out seriously how with growing multiple ways of communication and their accessibility on the rise, we are able to preserve national interests. I know what is being made out in the Parliament is mere politics and that is surely not in the national interests. They are now focussing on the phone tapping as it is directly affecting politicians and are back-fronting the IPL issue as it could be a mud on the faces of some across the parties. So better play down it.

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On the content side, apart from Japanese BS 11, which has been offering 3D broadcast since 2008, for couple of times a day; some other major broadcasters have announced their 3D plans and 2010, shall see more of the content available in three dimension. Of the majors include, Sky Sports 3D, Sky Movies 3D, MSG 3D, ESPN 3D, Sky 3D channel, etc.

Some of the channels started early 2010 and others are slated to be in the air by the end of this year. South Korean broadcaster, Korea Digital Satellite Broadcasting launched first in world 3D channel, SKY 3D. The channel has content of all genre like sports, documentaries, etc.

Also many major content providers and vendors like IMAX, Sony and Discovery have already announced their plans to launch a 24 hour channel by this year end. DirecTV and Panasonic also plan to launch 2 channels and 1 VOD channel with 3D content by end of 1H 2010.

All the above developments mean the kick start of 3D era for television. This will be a remarkable change in our perception about television. High Definition has already brought to us the ‘crystal clear’ content and 3D will definitely add a great value.

For the industry, it means a lot of opportunity all along the supply chain. But, at the begining, content will definitely be a bottleneck. The industry will need to adopt two directional strategy – creating new 3D content and converting the present 2D into 3D. So players like Adobe and Pinnacle have a great role to play in this segment.

Let’s see how the 3D eco-system evolves. This year it will be busy with creating the building blocks and probably by the end of 2011 and early 2012, we will be looking at some definite shape of the 3D TV eco-system. Happy 3D TV viewing!

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With 802.3at, the aim was to have devices powered through ethernet that consume around 40 watts of power. That would essentially include laptops. But, it seems that their is not much value proposition in this offering. With LAN taking the wireless route in offices, homes and public spots, the probability of laptop remaining connected to a wired ethernet port is minimal.

PoE can bring great value proposition in other segments, mainly network switches and routers. It might not be feasible for the industrial grade nodes, but yes inside the residential premise. For the time being (infact a lot of time) these devices are going to remain in the homes. We have routers, switches and specialized nodes like a decoder.

With IPTV taking as the next media of delivering TV content inside the homes, Power over Ethernet (PoE), can be effectively used to power up these decoders. Vendors like Ruckus Wireless offering wireless solutions in this space as well, there is still a lot of time and market for the wired decoders. Wireless decoder market will not be more than a couple of percent of the total and all the new providers in the market start off with the wired decoders.

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Apart from letting our friends know, we are creating pages and content for the service provider. The service provider fills the rest of the spaces with advertisements and makes millions. In media and entertainment industry, content provider always gets its chunk of revenue, but this is the only exception to the industry.

It won’t be fair to ask facebook or any other social networking site to share the revenues in large amounts; main share should be theirs. After all, they own the platform, the application and other rights. But each user must get some credit on pro-rata basis.

If a user has a large number of friends and results in a couple of thousand views per day, (s)he must be definitely rewarded. There could be some threshold for users qualifying the revenue sharing program, like minimum number of users, activeness, page views a day, etc. This would ensure that the service provider is sharing revenues only with real potential content generators and could motivate others to follow the pursuit.

Another such service is Youtube. They are also making money through the content shared by users like you and me. So why should not be we getting some share of the revenue they earn.

Though it might be too early to say, but if the trend remains like this, we could have the service fragmented and see many small or individual users coming up with their own websites for sharing their content. When one can have a sharing website ready in just a matter of few days using lot many open source platforms available and the website hosting is not a costly affair anymore, why shouldn’t we expect this in future. Of course, the transporting tool – broadband is at the finger tips of all.

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